Leeds have won just one of their last seven league games, and it looks as though history may be set to repeat itself.
Supporters won’t like to hear it, but the Whites appear as though they’re headed for another late-season collapse with their lead over third-place reducing from 11 points down to four.
That could be down to just one point if Fulham are victorious against Charlton on Wednesday too.
How has this happened? Leeds were looking so comfortable, but all of a sudden there are serious doubts about whether or not they can get over the line.
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Unsurprisingly it’s the same issue that plagued them last year as they’re failing to put away their chances.
However, despite having the worst conversion rate in the division last term, their finishing this year is seemingly worse than it was last season.
Marcelo Bielsa’s men are currently underperforming their xG by 7.9, whereas after all was said and done last season, they were just 3.5 behind where they should have been.
Leeds’ poor finishing this term has often been papered over by their incredible defensive performance, conceding just ten goals in their first 20 games.
However, their defence is looking a lot weaker these days and they’ve not been able to bail out their strikers after conceding 14 in their last seven league matches.
Their xGA is closing in on where it should be. It’s now just 1.7 better than predicted, compared to a differential of six in early December.
Unfortunately, their finishing isn’t improving at the same rate their defending is declining. In fact, it’s actually more than twice as bad as it was in 2018/19.
This means that United are more set up for a late-season collapse this year than they were last time around.
Finishing has been a long-term problem that they’ve not been able to fix, while incredible defending was a short-term spell that they’ve not often been able to replicate.
In other news, Leeds’ chances of loaning this Premier League striker may have just increased.